10B1.Using Track A frontal positions shown in Texas as the starting point, pencil in the cyclone’s estimated cold and warm frontal positions at 12-hour intervals along its predicted path. Draw the fronts from the low-pressure center at each location. For simplicity, draw the warm front in essentially the same position relative to the low pressure center and gradually rotate the cold front until it is oriented roughly north/south 24 hours after its Texas position. With Track A, residents of Detroit [(do)(do not)] experience the passage of fronts.[ ]do[ ]do not 2.Apply the hand-twist model of low pressure systems to the cyclone’s position at 12-hour intervals along Track A. Assume that before the storm’s arrival the wind at Detroit is blowing from the east. As the cyclone approaches the wind shifts from the east to the [(southeast)(northeast)].[ ]southeast[ ]northeast 3.Considering the wind shifts and frontal positions at Detroit as the cyclone passes through the region along Track A, the city is on the relatively [(warm)(cold)] side of the system.[ ]warm[ ]cold 4.Using the cyclone’s Track B frontal positions in Oklahoma as a guide, pencil in the associated cold front and warm front at 12-hour intervals. Follow the same guidelines you employed in drawing Track A frontal positions. With Track B, residents of Detroit [(do)(do not)] experience the passage of fronts.[ ]do[ ]do not 5.Apply the hand-twist model of low pressure systems to each of the storm’s 12-hour positions along Track B. Assume that initially the wind at Detroit is blowing from the east. As the storm approaches the wind shifts from the east to the [(southeast)(northeast)].[ ]southeast[ ]northeast 6.Considering the wind shifts at Detroit as the cyclone’s center passes through Michigan along Track B, Detroit is positioned to experience weather related to the relatively [(warm)(cold)] side of the system.[ ]warm[ ]cold 7.One extended period of substantial snowfall at Detroit is more likely if the cyclone takes Track [(A)(B)].[ ]A[ ]B 8.Two periods of precipitation, more likely to be rain, separated by a short period of relatively warm fair weather at Detroit might occur if the cyclone takes Track [(A)(B)].[ ]A[ ]B9.As the cyclone center approaches Detroit on either storm track, the air pressure at the city [(falls)(rises)].[ ]falls[ ]rises 10.As the cyclone center moves away from Detroit, the air pressure at the city [(falls)(rises)].[ ]falls[ ]rises 11.The next weather system to affect Detroit is likely a cold [(cyclone)(anticyclone)] approaching from central Canada.[ ]cyclone[ ]anticycloneThis Applications section continues the investigation of the winter storm introduced in Investigation 10A, Applications. A “winter storm”, a term used in operational weather discussions by meteorologists, is one, regardless of actual season, with frozen types of precipitation – snow, freezing rain, or ice pellets (also called sleet), had passed across the northern tier of states and was exiting into eastern Canada. The storm system formed in the Canadian Rockies, curved southeastward to Montana and then arced back northeastward across the Great Lakes. Heavy snowfalls accompanied this storm’s passage as well as rain along its cold front. Here we will consider the precipitation types accompanying its passage across the country. The locally heavy snowfall totals from Minnesota to Michigan were remarkable for being so early. 12.Review the Investigation 10A, Figure 3 surface weather map. Huron, in eastern South Dakota, was located to the north of the low-pressure center of the storm system. The temperature at Huron was [(27)(31)(33)(35)] °F and the dewpoint was 24 °F.[ ]27[ ]31[ ]33[ ]35 13.Huron was located where radar echoes [(did)(did not)] detect precipitation occurring.[ ]did[ ]did not 14.Huron’s 12Z (6 AM CST) 10 NOV 2014 present weather condition (not shown) was reported as light snow. This [(was)(was not)] consistent with the temperature and radar information of the surface map.[ ]was[ ]was not15.Figure 2 is the surface weather map for 00Z 12 NOV 2014, a day and a half following Investigation 10A’s Figure 3. The low-pressure center is located over northern Lake Huron at this time. The storm center moved toward the [(east-northeast)(south-southeast)(south-southwest)(north-northwest)] over the period between maps. This was generally consistent with the forecast you made based on the Investigation 10A, Figure 4’s upper-level winds.[ ]east-northeast[ ]south-southeast[ ]south-southwest[ ]north-northwest16.The temperature at Huron at 00Z on 12 NOV was [(7)(14)(23)(29)] °F. This confirms the cold air mass following the storm system’s passage.[ ]7[ ]14[ ]23[ ]29 17.Billings, in southeastern Montana, and Casper, WY, reported a present weather condition of two stars indicating [(light rain)(light snow)(a thunderstorm)] was occurring.[ ]light rain[ ]light snow[ ]a thunderstorm 18.Indianapolis, IN, was located west of (behind) the cold front that had passed. Radar echoes along the cold front indicate that precipitation had probably occurred there with the frontal passage. Indianapolis’ temperature was shown as [(28)(32)(35)(39)] °F. Temperatures to the east of the front were in the 50s and 60’s, as were the temperatures in the Indianapolis area before the front passed. The past weather reports for Indianapolis 3, 4, and 5 hours prior to map time included fog, light drizzle, mist, and light rain.[ ]28[ ]32[ ]35[ ]39Figure 3 is a composite of views from the NWS National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center of total amounts for various types of precipitation over the coterminous U.S. for three successive twenty-four hour periods. Print Figure 3 for analysis purposes by clicking on the image or going to the Learning Files section of the RealTime Weather Portal and clicking on the “Investigations Manual Images” links. Go to the row labeled “10B,” select “Fig. 3”, and then print the figure. Printing in the enlarged landscape view will aid you in your analysis. The top three views are reported snow precipitation while the bottom maps show non-snow precipitation (essentially rain) for the twenty-four hours ending at 06Z on each day. The left panels are the twenty-four hour period ending 06Z on 10 NOV 2014. The middle panels are for the next 24-hour period ending at 06Z on 11 NOV 2014. The right panels are for the last 24-hour period ending at 06Z on 12 NOV 2014. The respective shaded scale for liquid-equivalent precipitation in each panel is in inches and millimeters between the map rows.Bold yellow Ls have been placed on the top sequence of snow precipitation maps to denote the low-pressure center’s general positions at six-hourly intervals of each period. For example, the top left snow panel shows the positions of the Low centers at 06Z, 12Z, 18Z 09 NOV and 00Z and 06Z 10 NOV, respectively. The middle panel contains the 06Z, 12Z, 18Z times for 10NOV and ending at 06Z 11 NOV. The right panel contains the 06Z, 12Z, 18Z times for 11 NOV and ending at 06Z 12 NOV. The 06Z positions occur in both adjoining panels for continuity. The Low moved generally from west to east across each map. 19.The Investigation 10A Figure 3 map was for 12Z 10 NOV 2014. The storm system’s low-pressure center at that time was shown on this Figure 3 composite map by the yellow L located in [(Montana)(Nebraska)(Iowa)(Wisconsin)] of the middle panel.[ ]Montana[ ]Nebraska[ ]Iowa[ ]Wisconsin 20.Precipitation in the top and bottom middle panels [(does)(does not)] generally cover the same region of the U.S. as shown by the Investigation 10A, Figure 3 surface map’s radar storm echoes.[ ]does[ ]does not 21.Rain, during the time period of the lower right non-snow precipitation map, [(was)(was not)] consistent in location with the radar shadings south of the Low center along the cold front in the Figure 2 map at 00Z 12 NOV 2014.[ ]was[ ]was not22.During the time period of the three panels, the frozen precipitation (snow) [(was)(was not)] restricted generally to the north of the low-pressure center.[ ]was[ ]was not 23.In each of the top snow panels, draw a broad arrow from the beginning to the final Low positions going through the center of each L. Add an arrowhead to the eastern end of each curve to clearly mark the direction of the storm track. The areas that experienced snow were located generally to the [(north)(south)] of the storm track.[ ]north[ ]south 24.Looking along the storm track arrows you placed on the snow precipitation maps, during the storm’s passage, the “cold” side would be to the [(left)(right)] of the storm track.[ ]left[ ]right 25.In the bottom, non-snow precipitation maps, copy the bold arrow positions representing the storm’s track as drawn in the top snow panels. In general, rain is found trending [(north and west)(south and east)] of the storm track.[ ]north and west[ ]south and east26.Looking along the storm track arrow you placed on the non-snow precipitation map, during the storm’s passage, the “warm” side would be to the [(left)(right)] of the track.[ ]left[ ]right 27.These relative positions of the respective precipitation types in this actual storm [(are)(are not)] consistent with the model presented in Figure 1.[ ]are[ ]are not 28.The approximate path of the Low centers in Figure 3 [(did)(did not)] track as generally expected from Investigation 10A Figure 4’s 500-mb wind directions.[ ]did[ ]did not Complicating factors exist in actual storms. In many cases, the temperature patterns involved with the cyclonic circulation bring warm air northward ahead of the Low center and cold air southward behind it. Also, as Lows approach the East Coast, warmer Atlantic air is brought into the mix. Temperatures are crucial to the types of precipitation. Snow does not accompany every storm, but there are warm and cold portions of the track. Many surface map products can be found from the RealTime Weather Portal’s Surface section, “NWS Surface Analyses” link. Links further down the WPC Analysis page provide surface maps for regions in a variety of formats as well as animations for the past day at three-hourly intervals. There is also a link at the bottom of the NWS Surface Analyses page to the official how-to book, NWS Unified Surface Analysis Manual. Suggestions for further activities: Another valuable map resource is available from the NOAA Daily Weather Maps series (http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dwm/dwm.shtml ()). Go to this site. To get a particular day’s set of maps, click on the image of the map page. (The most
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